In September, the Fed is slated to double the current caps to $95B. What does this mean? Starting next month, the first $60B in Treasuries and $35B in MBS proceeds the Fed receives through bond maturing, refinance or purchase activity will be given back to the Treasury rather than reinvested in bonds. This is how the Fed will shrink the balance sheet by $95B per month.
It is worth noting that balance sheet reduction or Quantitative Tightening is not tested and there is no formula as to its impact on the economy, so the Fed is going to proceed with this enhanced $95B monthly runoff until something weird happens in the financial markets just like it did in their previous attempt to shrink the balance sheet back in 2018. This underlying uncertainty as our economy slows is also unnerving for both stocks and bonds.
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