Russia/Ukraine Remains Unresolved
High oil prices are rough. It’s a tax on consumers that goes uncollected. Should the Russia/Ukraine story escalate, and oil prices head higher, the Fed will have to soften its tone and be more dovish or accommodative. The opposite is true – if Russia/Ukraine comes to a political resolution, we could easily see rates pop back higher as the uncertainty is lifted. The longer this story lingers the less likely the Fed can be hawkish and hike rates.
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